Tipping Points
Why is Time Running Out?

What do tipping points have to do with the climate crisis? And how does this relate to the Paris Climate Agreement? On climate targets and the ticking clock.

„Gut Ding will Weile haben.“ This is a German proverb. It means that for something to be good, it takes time. At first glance, time does not seem to be an issue when it comes to climate action. Germany, for example, wants to be carbon neutral by 2045, while the EU promises the same by 2050.

Yet heat records are being broken from year to year, extreme weather events are on the rise and scientists say that climate action is moving too slowly and that time is running out.

This raises two questions:

Why do we need to act on climate change as soon as possible?

Man-made climate change is caused by greenhouse gases being released into the air. So far, so clear. But if humans stop blowing greenhouse gases into the air, it doesn't mean that the Earth will immediately recover from climate change. It might get cooler, but the temperature could stay the same or even rise further.

However, according to scientists, at a certain level of temperature increase, so-called tipping points will be crossed. This could have dangerous consequences: When a tipping point is crossed, changes can be very rapid and irreversible.

An example of a tipping point is the melting of snow and ice at the poles. Because snow and ice are white, the North and South Poles reflect the sun's rays and throw them back into space - this is called the albedo effect.
As a result of climate change, the ice and snow around the North and South Poles is melting. The white area is getting smaller, and less sunrays are reflected back into space. For this reason, the temperature on Earth is constantly rising, the ice and snow are melting more and more, the white area is getting smaller and smaller, it is getting warmer and warmer, ... At a certain point – the tipping point – this process can no longer be stopped.

It is very difficult for scientists to determine when such a tipping point is reached. That's why they stress the importance of stopping climate change very quickly, so that tipping points are not crossed in the first place.

So why are climate targets set so far into the future?

There are different formulations for climate targets: “limit global warming to 1.5 degrees” or “achieve climate neutrality by year xy“. However, all climate targets have one thing in common: they are designed to help meet the Paris Agreement. The overarching goal of the Paris Agreement is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.”
This 1.5 degree limit actually has something to do with the tipping points. Scientists suspect that the first tipping points could be passed if the Earth's temperature rises by 1.5 degrees.

The Paris Agreement does not specify which country has to do what. That is why some countries have set a climate neutrality target. Climate neutrality means emitting only as many greenhouse gases as are absorbed by forests, peatlands, etc. A climate neutrality target is a way for a country to determine what needs to be done to comply with the Paris Agreement. Interim targets are often set. Germany aims to be carbon neutral by 2045, but has set an interim target of 2030.

However, each country sets its own targets for becoming climate neutral. That is why, we do not know whether the Paris Climate Agreement will be met. It is therefore necessary to keep changing and improving climate targets.